A second referendum for Brexit is likely, according to 57 percent of an interactive audience poll at the Association of the Luxembourg Fund Industry (ALFI) European Asset Management Conference.
In the same poll, only 18 percent of the audience thought Brexit will likely go ahead as planned, while a further 10 percent suggested they thought a delay of more than a year was likely.
The panel, made up of directors and senior counsels of international investment firms, explored how firms can make the right moves and decisions as the current Brexit deadline of 29 March approaches.
One panellist said: “Personally, I think the EU and UK would be better off together, but my optimistic approach is dying hard, but I hope we could see a positive outcome.”
He said, his company, an investment management group, were prudent and have prepared themselves “for any outcome”.
Brexit talks dominated the first afternoon’s discussions as the second Brexit panel of the afternoon saw Denise Voss, chairman of ALFI, discussing the future of Brexit with John Marshall, the British Ambassador to Luxembourg.
Voss asked Marshall the consequences of a no-deal or hard Brexit and what that looked like from a UK perspective.
Marshall explained: “We still have an opportunity to vote on whether we leave without a deal or not. We have been working toward a no-deal scenario for a very long time now. There are a lot of measures that have been put in place for that eventuality.”
Voss then asked what would happen “once the dust has settled” and what could be expected, post-Brexit.
Marshall said: “We want an orderly exit that is looking like December 2020. The UK wants frictionless trade, but the EU doesn’t want to undermine the customs market.”
He added, in reference to financial services, “the removal of the freedom of movement would not mean the UK will be closed to business. The government will very likely put in place a system that attracts talent so financial services can continue to grow and prosper”.
The panel then took some questions from the floor. One delegate asked Marshall why the UK Government is not in favour of a second referendum and why it is looking unlikely it will take place.
Marshall indicated: “We are very close to getting a majority of the UK Parliament to agree on a deal, with some changes to this issue of the backstop. We are very close to that point. There is a view shared by many that a second referendum would be a very divisive proposition.”
